Caucasus talks won't resolve issues, says Armenian official

Caucasus talks won't resolve issues, says Armenian official
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Vercihan Ziflioğlu
YEREVAN – Hürriyet Daily News


As the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan prepare for another round of peace talks Friday, a former deputy to the Armenian ambassador in Moscow has said negotiations will fail to resolve the long-standing Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

Dr. Stepan Grigorian, who has also been an adviser to the Armenian Foreign Ministry, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review that Russia, which is hosting the Caucasus peace talks, does not want reconciliation in the Karabakh dispute. He also said he thought attempts by Matt Bryza, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, for a solution were superficial and inadequate.

Presidents Serge Sarkisian of Armenia and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan met in November for talks near Moscow, as Russia cast itself as peacemaker after its August war with Georgia. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Armenia and Azerbaijan had made progress toward a resolution. Mediators from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, who have been monitoring peacemaking efforts, had also reported in early May that they saw signs of progress.

Nagorno-Karabakh is an enclave in Azerbaijan that has been occupied by Armenian forces since the end of a six-year conflict that killed about 30,000 people and displaced 1 million before a truce was reached in 1994. Its unilateral independence is not recognized by the international community. Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in support of Azerbaijan in the conflict.

Past policies:

Despite the promising signals from the peace negotiations, Grigorian said he believed Friday’s meeting between Sarkisian and Aliyev would not provide a breakthrough in the Karabakh problem, which he said had become more complicated due to the flawed policies of Armenia’s second President Robert Kocharian.

“Since Kocharian himself was from Karabakh, he wanted to rule Armenia and the disputed region together. He advocated Karabakh independence. But this perception made the situation more difficult,” he said.

Evaluating the Russian mediation of the talks, Grigorian said he did not believe Moscow was honest about a clear solution to the dispute, adding: “Russia just pursues its own interest in the negotiations. Therefore, a solution will not be possible unless the interests of Russia, along with the U.S., have been met.”

According to Grigorian, Russia wants to be the only power in the Caucasus region and a possible deal between Yerevan and Baku means waning Russian influence in both former Soviet countries. Recalling Russia’s recognition of the Georgian rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abhkazia, Grigorian said that like the international community Russia had never recognized the independence of Karabakh.

“Armenia thinks Russia will always be the protector country, but this is a big mistake. Russia’s stance on Karabakh’s independence should be an important lesson for Armenia,” he said.

Criticism of optimism:

Grigorian said he thought attempts by Bryza for a solution were left wanting. “It is hard to understand the optimism of Bryza on the Karabakh issue. Optimistic statements raise expectations and that is extremely wrong. Bryza does not know the area well enough and this is a great danger.”

He also suggested that rushing the process might pose grave risks to the region and could even lead to another war, which would cause instability not only in the Caucasus but also in the Middle East.

Grigorian said among all EU nations, only the policies of France were similar to the Russian stance “because of the French hostility toward Turkey.”

“France does not want Turkish-Armenian relations improved,” he said, adding: “Ankara is seeking a deal with the Armenians that will open the EU’s doors to Turkey. However, France does not want to see Turkey among the EU family.”

As a result the key to a solution is in the hands of the Armenian and Azerbaijani people, Gregorian said, adding that they should be further informed because both societies were not ready for the solution process yet.

Gregorian said he also believed Turkey might play an active role in the process by establishing dialogue with Armenia. But warned: “Like Cyprus, the Karabakh problem is not one that can be solved quickly.”